9/1/2023 0 Comments Small battery store near meThese numbers are approximate but do warrant that the oil and gas industry keep a watchful eye on year-by-year growth in EV batteries as well as home batteries that store rooftop solar energy and in grid batteries that store energy from wind and solar farms. Almost half of this increase originated from LNG in Texas and Louisiana where gas demand shot up 116%. EIA just reported a 43% increase, or 35 Bcfd, in U.S. production were routed overseas via LNG tankers, which is already happening. The fraction would be greater than 28% if less than half of the coal-fired power plants were turned off by 2030.īut the fraction would be less if surplus U.S. This ought to be a concern for the oil and gas industry, because if supply follows demand, production of natural gas in the U.S. Let’s assume half of the coal power plants have been shut down by 2030, which is 4.25 quads, then the rest of the 12.9 quads would mean shutting down 8.65 quads of gas plants which amounts to 28% of 31 total quads of natural gas in Figure 1. To reach 80% renewables, 12.9 quads of coal or natural gas needs to be displaced by renewables. Current electricity from renewables and nuclear is 15.5 quads which is 44% of the total. President Biden’s goal is for renewables to provide 80% of total electricity by 2030.įrom Figure 1, total U.S. Replacing power plants by solar and wind will affect gas production. may drop 17% but crude oil sales abroad to places like Southeast Asia may replace the demand and keep the supply up in the US. There is a caveat: the demand in the U.S. This would be a sizeable hit to oil production in the U.S. If supply follows demand, then a 17% decline in crude oil production would be expected by 2030 – almost a fifth of oil production declining by 2030. Since total petroleum usage is 32 quads in Figure 1, this 5.5-quad decline implies a 17% decline in consumption of oil in the U.S. A 25% decline in gasoline cars would take oil usage in Figure 1 from 22 to 16.5 quads – a 5.5 quad drop.
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